Predictions: Good or Bad?

Chaos? Uncertain future? The perfect time for predictions!

Good and Bad Predictions

The world seems to be in a state of flux. There is change everywhere. There is upheaval. There is unpredictability in our perception of the future. Can we move toward more accountability in political representation? Which way will the pendulum swing between conservatives and liberals? Do moderates have a chance at dominance? Can we analyze where in our society inequity and inequality reside? Once identified, can reason dominate and guide us toward a peaceful coexistence in which everyone can expect a win-win future? Will we survive climate change, or will over-reaching capitalism push us toward environmental collapse? Questions abound on every subject and outcomes are uncertain.

It’s the perfect time for predictions.

Times of uncertainty and change are fertile ground for predictive opinions.

First, we should define WHAT a prediction is. There are always outcomes to any change. We can land one way or another, but for certain, we will land. A prediction is an opinion as to where we will land. Notice the word opinion. Predictors are often media, pundits, experts, or opportunists.

We should consider WHY a prediction is made. As human beings, we feel unsafe in unpredictable situations. We seek safety. Investors want to know where to safely put their money and their trust. Parents want to know where to live and where to educate their children. Will an academic career or a trade career be more secure for their child’s future?

We all seek safety, regardless of what labels we are carrying. We seek predictions to try to see into the future and determine how to be safe in it.

WHO is the most reliable source of predictions? The answer to that is everyone and no one!

It seems logical that predictions and predictors that are based on facts, historical influences, track records, and data are the best basis for predicting the future. People who believe that seek out the predictions made by experts, historians and statisticians.

Human nature being the unpredictable, subjective, and impulsive thing that it is, skews predictions toward the emotional and the dramatic. Media needs headlines. Entrepreneurs and expansionists need a big picture approach to justify growth and seek to influence through subjective manipulation. Opportunists and influencers use the impulsive nature of human beings to predict the future that they would like to see.

So, who is right? Predictors who use the scientific or historical data to see into the unknown, or those motivators who try to move history forward into a picture that they see? What type of predictions are the safest? Safe predictions are usually those with the shortest time frame. Long range predictions are subject to all changes along the timeline. Like the butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon, a single action somewhere may result in a change thousands of miles away in a seemingly unrelated location.

Predictions made within the simplest system are safe for similar reasons. The fewer unpredictable influences, the more likely the data and statistics will apply and the less likely impulses, emotions and the unexpected will affect the outcome.

HOW should we view predictions? Who is making the prediction? What is it based on? What kind of incentives does the predictor have, for good or ill? We have determined that there is no problem for the predictor if the prediction is wrong, and huge benefit if the prediction is correct. The last factor that is often overlooked when considering predictions is the success rate of the predictor. How often has the predictor been right in the past?

As you move through unpredictable times and seek safety in predictions along the way, there are many things to consider. We can see that a prediction is an opinion of a future outcome. We know that we want to believe predictions that agree with our own personal opinions and that will assist us in finding safety for ourselves, our families and our money. We can see that predictions can come from many sources and are motivated by many influences, both logical and emotional.

It is up to us as the consumer of predictions to take into consideration the many diverse factors that create predictions and our mindset as we consider those predictions. An interesting factor to consider is the law of attraction. The more people who accept a prediction as probable, the more likely it is to come to fruition. Choose carefully.